The Sea of Green

Palestinians have voted, and Hamas has claimed a major victory- 76 seats in parliament, compared to Fatah's 43. Some might find this completely unbelievable, but I don't really think so.

Don't get me wrong- I actually doubt that the majority of Palestinians are religious extremists determined to "obliterate Israel" (the terminology used in the Hamas covenant). I prefer to believe that much like their Israeli neighbours, the majority of Palestinians would simply like to live normal lives, raise their children and make a decent living.

So why, you ask, would they vote for Hamas? Here's what I think: After 48 years, the Fatah party has become inextricably linked to the ineffectual and corrupt Yasser Arafat. While he was squirreling their money away in European banks, the Palestinian people lived like dogs. And who stepped in to provide basic services, like health care and education? That's right- Hamas. The fact Hamas is driven by a religious extremism uncharacteristic of many Palestinians pales in comparison to what they have contributed to Palestinian society.

You might wonder why, now that Arafat is dead, would the Palestinians not continue their support for Abbas, Fatah's current leader. And here's where certain people might get offended- I think that ultimately, Hamas's victory can be understood as a consequence of Israeli unilateralism. Pretty much since the start of Abbas's leadership, Israel has refused to deal with the PA. Claiming they "had no partner for peace", negotiations ceased. The pull-out from Gaza - arguably the single-most significant event since the assassination of Rabin in 1995 - was carried out by the IDF while the Palestinians - and more importantly - the PA watched from the sidelines.

What could be a clearer signal to the Palestinian people that theirs was a useless leader? By refusing to publicly engage Abbas in the turnover of Gaza, Israel emasculated the Chairman and debilitated the party.

So what does this mean? One line of argument is that, much like Fatah's own history, Hamas will be tamed by its entry into the official democratic governing structure. Over the past year we have seen evidence of much internal diversity within the organization, with some leaders quite willing to negotiate with Israel. On the other hand, this could go the other way, as evidenced by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Despite its official status as a political party, Hezbollah is clearly an extremist group that is considered a terrorist organization by many countries, including the US, UK, Canada, The Netherlands, and Australia. Where Hamas will end up, only time will tell.

After yesterday's elections, two things are clear: Israel may no longer be the only democracy in the Middle East, and if they thought Fatah was a shitty partner for peace, they've got a whole other thing coming.